Algorithms, personal data and elections: how political persuasion is manipulated online

Social media, artificial intelligence and the huge amount of personal data that users leave online are changing the way political beliefs and voter behaviour can be influenced.

In an analysis published by the “Sunday Star Times”, information-threats expert Tim Niven argues that there is a multibillion-dollar online influence industry, which is being further empowered by artificial intelligence.

According to him, one of the main changes relates to the ability of algorithms to create detailed psychological profiles of users, by analysing their reactions, the content they view and the time they spend on it.

Niven refers to a 2015 study, according to which algorithmic analysis of around 70 Facebook likes could predict a user’s personality traits better than his friends, while with around 300 likes it could even surpass the assessment of a spouse or partner.

According to the analysis, the importance of this data lies in the possibility of tailoring political messages to the interests, fears, hopes and individual characteristics of different groups of voters.

One of the most important cases that has fuelled the debate in Europe is that of the 2024 presidential elections in Romania.

On 6 December 2024, Romania’s Constitutional Court annulled the entire presidential election process and ordered it to be repeated. The decision came after the publication of declassified documents from Romanian security institutions.

The Court declared that the process had been undermined by a series of irregularities that had affected the free and fair character of the vote, equality among candidates and the transparency of campaign financing.

The decision specifically mentioned the non-transparent use of digital technologies and artificial intelligence, as well as financing from undeclared sources, including online activities.

The Court also said that one candidate had benefited from aggressive online promotion through the “abusive exploitation of social media platform algorithms”, creating, in its view, inequality among candidates.

Later analyses of the declassified documents have described a coordinated TikTok campaign in favour of Călin Georgescu, who came first in the first round. An analysis by King’s College London reported that the documents mentioned more than 25,000 TikTok accounts activated around two weeks before the elections, as well as the use of influencers to spread messages.

However, even researchers who have analysed the case warn that determining the exact influence of a social platform on an election result requires caution. The fact that a campaign was highly visible on TikTok does not automatically prove that it alone determined how citizens voted.

The Romanian case has brought back to the centre of the debate a broader problem: platform algorithms not only determine what users see, but can also be used to amplify political messages tailored to very specific groups.

With the development of AI, the ability to produce personalised texts, images and videos at large scale makes this process even faster and cheaper.

The challenge for democracies is to preserve the legitimate space for online political campaigns, while ensuring transparency over financing, advertising, the use of AI and the way algorithms distribute political content.