FOCUS – IEEFA: EU could face a possible gas shortage as winter approaches

BRUSSELS, October 9 /ATSH-AA/ – The European Union (EU) could face a natural gas shortage of up to 14 billion cubic metres this winter, equivalent to about 7 percent of the bloc’s demand, amid depleted storage levels and disruptions to global energy supplies, according to energy reports.

A report by the U.S.-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), shared with Politico, warned that EU gas reserves have fallen to just over 70 percent, their lowest level for this time of year since records began in 2011.

The potential deficit could affect energy supplies equivalent to the consumption of 10 to 12 million European households, raising concerns about higher electricity bills and possible energy-saving measures.

High prices have encouraged traders to sell gas during the summer instead of refilling storage facilities ahead of winter, leaving the bloc with a reduced buffer against supply disruptions.

The findings were also reflected in the 2026–2027 winter supply outlook published by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG).

The report warned that storage levels could fall to as low as 11 percent under a cold-winter scenario if liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are limited or remain at optimal levels.

To restore reserves to 30 percent by the end of winter, the EU could face a situation in which gas consumption equivalent to 7 percent of demand would have to be curtailed, or supplies cut off from consumers, according to ENTSOG.

The EU’s planned ban on long-term contracts for Russian LNG, due to take effect in January, is expected to reduce gas imports by a further 7 billion cubic metres, according to the IEEFA report.

Meanwhile, winter gas demand has risen over the last two years, while imports have remained largely unchanged, increasing the bloc’s dependence on stored supplies.

The EU could turn to additional LNG imports, particularly from the U.S., to offset possible supply losses.

However, replacing the missing volumes at current prices would cost an additional 3 billion euros, representing an increase of 12 percent compared with the cost of the same volumes last year, according to IEEFA.