Experts: Trump will not win the Nobel Peace Prize, but he will influence the Committee’s decision

U.S. President Donald Trump will not win this year’s Nobel Peace Prize while he wages war with Iran, but his influence will still be felt by the body that awards the prize and chooses the laureate, according to experts.

Last year’s prize, for Venezuela’s Maria Corina Machado, was unique in the prize’s 125-year history, coming amid repeated lobbying by Trump to receive the prize. Weeks later, Machado gave Trump her Nobel gold medal, in an attempt to win support for her efforts for a democratic Venezuela.

This year, the five-member body will be careful to choose someone who can withstand pressure from Trump, according to Haakon Gjerloew, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo.

“I think last year’s events around the Nobel Peace Prize, with Maria Corina Machado subsequently giving hers to Trump, will influence some of the considerations they will take on board,” he told Reuters.

“One concern the committee may have is whether awarding it to someone could put that person under pressure from Donald Trump. I think the committee will weigh whether the prize does more harm than good,” he added.

That could mean a prize for Pope Leo, the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice or Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur for the Occupied Palestinian Territories, experts say. The announcement will be made on October 9.

Leo, the first U.S.-born pope, has said he will continue to speak out against the war, after the president called him “weak” for his criticism of the U.S. conflict with Iran.

The Pope’s encyclical on artificial intelligence, his advocacy for dialogue and peaceful resolution of conflicts, his calls for respect for migrants and his humanitarian work could justify a prize.

“The Pope represents more than just a religious figure. He has emerged as a leading thought leader,” said Karim Haggag, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.