Strait of Hormuz recovers oil shipments: 10.3 million barrels a day, but refined fuels still in collapse

The flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is recovering significantly: the average volume of crude oil shipments reached 10.3 million barrels a day by Saturday, covering 76 percent of the baseline flow before the start of the war, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing data from the market intelligence firm Kpler, according to the update in Al Jazeera’s liveblog on the war in Iran.

The recovery is not complete, however. Refined products such as diesel and gasoline remain at very low levels because of regional refinery disruptions caused by war-related strikes. Although the G7 group recently agreed to release 100 million barrels from emergency reserves, analysts warn that a full return of the refined fuel market could take until 2027, while damaged refineries slowly resume operations.

In response to easing supply fears, oil prices moved slightly lower: Brent fell by 4 cents to $100.28 a barrel, while U.S. WTI crude fell by 11 cents to $89.33, Al Jazeera reports. The trend follows maritime data published on Monday which showed that oil shipments from the Middle East exceeded pre-conflict volumes on four separate days in late September.

Traders nevertheless remain cautious: the Houthis’ continuing attacks on Saudi infrastructure continue to keep fuel transit routes in the Persian Gulf under tension.