Trump celebrates Bolsonaro’s ‘big win’ in Brazil

In a position of strength ahead of the second round of Brazil’s presidential elections at the end of the month, right-wing candidate Senator Flavio Bolsonaro was warmly backed by U.S. President Donald Trump for his “big win” over his opponent, outgoing centre-left President Lula.

Senator Bolsonaro, 45, surprised observers the day before yesterday, on Sunday, by securing 47% in the first round of the presidential elections, compared with 45% for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Opinion polls had given the 80-year-old president a lead, as he seeks a fourth term, his second in a row, in the top job. The second round is scheduled for October 25.

By securing 56 million votes, Flavio Bolsonaro even did slightly better than his father, far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro, who had taken 49 million when he was elected in 2018 and 51 million when he was defeated by Lula in 2022.

U.S. President Trump praised his performance yesterday: “It’s a big win — a mixed win, but a very, very big win. Incredible.”

With the backing of the White House’s occupant, right-wing factions have recently scored successive victories in Latin America. But a shift to the right by the region’s largest economy would be a major development.

Euphoria on the stock market

The results were certainly welcomed on the Sao Paulo stock exchange, which was up 9% yesterday afternoon, with the Ibovespa index breaking through the 200,000-point barrier to a historic record high.

For Gerson Zanlorenzi, an executive at the investment bank BTG Pactual, the markets consider candidate Bolsonaro “more aligned” with what they regard as Brazil’s “economic and fiscal needs”.

The conservative candidate promises more austerity measures, tax cuts and less government. He also promises an iron fist against crime.

Bolsonaro Jr., relatively unknown nationally until a few months ago, wants to present himself as “more moderate” than his father, who is serving a 27-year house-arrest sentence for attempting to overthrow Lula in a coup in 2022.

“Tsunami” against Lula

If elected in the second round, he will have a right-leaning parliament on his side. His party, the Liberal Party (PL), almost doubled its seats in the Senate, from 15 to 28, and among its new members will notably be former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro.

The right’s “tsunami” did not leave the Lower House untouched either, where Nicolas Ferreira, 30, a figure of the conservative party’s new generation, was re-elected collecting three million votes — a record for a member of parliament in Brazil.

For analyst Thomas Traumann, these elections were characterised by a “tsunami” against the PT, Lula’s Workers’ Party, which has governed for most of the last twenty years.

The prevailing atmosphere makes Flavio Bolsonaro the “favourite” for the presidency, and he will be “in an even stronger position to govern than his father”, he said, speaking to Agence France-Presse.

Jair Bolsonaro’s eldest son declared on Sunday that “the end of the PT era has been decided”.