Bank of Albania on External Risks: Wars and Oil Threaten the Economy

The Bank of Albania assesses that the financial situation of households and businesses remains stable, but risks from international developments have increased. Wars, energy prices and developments in the real estate market remain the key factors of uncertainty for the economy.

The Bank of Albania has analyzed the economy’s performance in the first half of the year and potential risks. The Financial Stability Report for January–June 2026 stresses that the financial situation of businesses and households remains stable, as long as income and debt burdens appear at manageable levels.

“However, businesses continue to feel the lack of qualified personnel and international developments currently present higher uncertainty. The continuation of the war in Ukraine and military conflicts in the Middle East keep the tendency to expand, and have negatively affected oil, gas and the prices of products that rely on them,” the BoA report stresses.

The Bank of Albania notes that risks in the “external environment” are classified at a “medium” level, but are higher compared to a year ago. On the other hand, the positive performance of other sub-indicators, such as the 12 percent economic growth of key trading partners and fluctuations at low levels of short-term interest rates in international markets, have balanced the risk from the above factors.

The BoA assesses that in the periodic survey conducted with banks, the risk from international developments on the country’s economy has been identified by them as the main source of risk, followed by developments in the real estate market.