French extremists lead the 2027 presidential race

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen kept her lead ahead of the presidential elections, while her far-left rival Jean-Luc Mélenchon came second in most of the scenarios tested, a Monday poll showed, underscoring the growing polarization of the electorate as Emmanuel Macron’s era comes to an end.

Le Pen would win between 33% and 36% of the first-round votes, depending on the scenarios tested by pollster Toluna Harris Interactive, in a poll conducted between September 8 and 10.

Mélenchon, the candidate of the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) party, is seen reaching the runoff in at least three of the five scenarios surveyed, while he tied for second place in a fourth scenario. Le Pen is seen defeating him easily in a runoff.

Macron’s former prime minister, Édouard Philippe, is the only center-right candidate who comes ahead of Mélenchon in one tested scenario and ties him in another. The others would finish behind in all scenarios.

As Macron’s second and final term comes to an end, the unpopular president leaves behind an emptied political center and a weak economy, opening space for hard-line parties such as LFI and Le Pen’s National Rally.

Mélenchon has already run for president three times, in 2012, 2017 and 2022, but has never managed to reach the second round. Le Pen has also run in the same three elections. She reached the runoff in 2017 and 2022, but lost to Macron.