Republican candidates distance themselves from Trump five weeks before the midterms: polls predict a blue wave

Byron Donalds, the Republican candidate for governor of Florida backed by Donald Trump, has removed key mentions of the president from his campaign website, as USA Today reports. Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar of Miami said in a campaign ad that Trump’s deportation campaign has “gone too far” and that Hispanic voters who helped him win “feel betrayed.”

Ashley Hinson of Iowa, a candidate for the Senate, and Mike Rogers of Michigan, the Republican Senate candidate, called for an immediate end to the war with Iran. Meanwhile, Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas criticized ICE operations in his state — further signs that Republican candidates are trying to create distance from the White House.

The polls explain the distancing. According to Reuters/Ipsos, Trump’s approval has fallen to 32% — his lowest on record — while the Real Clear Politics average puts him at 39%. An Echelon Insights poll found that 56% of Republican voters see themselves primarily as supporters of the party, not of Trump personally; in January 2025, 59% of them were Trump supporters.

A Suffolk University poll in Michigan puts Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Rogers 47%–40%, while 48% of voters say they are voting “to change the direction Trump is taking the country.” Democrats need only four net seats to take control of the Senate, and Republicans trail in all nine of the closest races.

The White House rejects the distancing narrative. Spokesman Davis Ingle said Trump remains the party’s “undisputed leader” and Republicans’ best messenger in these elections.