The NBA’s all-overpaid lineup for the 2026–27 season

Ahead of the 2026–27 season, an all-overpaid starting five has been assembled — players expected to deliver less on-court value than the salaries they’ll collect that season. The goal is not to rank the worst contracts overall, but to evaluate each player solely against the figure he will earn in 2026–27, which allows players on expiring deals to make the cut.

According to Bleacher Report, the analysis uses a model to determine each player’s “salary surplus,” assuming he plays as many minutes as last season and requiring at least 60 appearances or the three-year game average — whichever is higher. The final result follows a conventional lineup: two guards, two forwards and a center, with figures showing how many million dollars each selection is considered overpaid for the 2026–27 season.

Guard: Ja Morant (Portland Trail Blazers) — Age 27, 2026–27 salary: $42,166,510 (25.56% of the cap), overpaid by about $19.7 million. Various availability issues — only 79 appearances in the last three years due to injuries, suspensions and team policies — combined with a declining rate of drives to the basket and little experience as a long-range shooter (31.1% for his career) make Morant a debatable choice. In Portland, the lack of shooting and the need to reorganize the roles of players such as Deni Avdija, Scoot Henderson and Jrue Holiday further complicate his use, while the club spends a large portion of the cap on a player with this profile.

Guard: Christian Braun (Denver Nuggets) — Age 25, 2026–27 salary: $21,551,726 (13.06% of the cap), overpaid by about $4.2 million. Braun remains a committed and young player, but he is a low-volume option from three-point range and recorded a 17-point drop in efficiency off the ball according to BBall Index. His dependence on Nikola Jokić was clear: without Jokić, his two-point shooting percentage fell by about 28 points, and his self-created attempts registered a true shooting of 31.8% — the worst of his career and in the league’s 24th percentile. On a team that continues to struggle for shooting, this salary is hard to justify.

Forward: Paul George (Boston Celtics) — Age 36, 2026–27 salary: $54,126,380 (32.81% of the cap), overpaid by about $38.2 million. George has missed games frequently in recent years — since 2018–19 he has had only one season with fewer than 15 missed games, averaging over 30 absences per season — and confidence that his health will improve significantly in his 17th career year is uncertain. Tying such a large portion of the cap to a player with this profile risks a lot in the long term.

Forward: Patrick Williams (Chicago Bulls) — Age 25, 2026–27 salary: $18,000,000 (10.91% of the cap), overpaid by about $18.0 million. Williams has not developed consistent offensive skills and his defense has limited substance. With the change of leadership under Bryson Graham and new additions such as Matas Buzelis, Caleb Wilson, Dailyn Swain and Leonard Miller, there is a chance Williams will spend more time outside the rotation than inside it, which would significantly deepen his perception as an unprofitable contract.

Center: Joel Embiid (Philadelphia 76ers) — Age 32, 2026–27 salary: $57,985,752 (35.15% of the cap), overpaid by about $18.4 million according to the model. This number is based on the assumption that Embiid will play 60 games, something he has not managed since 2022; if he plays 10 fewer games, the surplus projection rises to approximately $25 million. His weight loss last year could improve mobility and longevity, but for now his high salary remains underwater and any hope of improvement requires sustained evidence of health and performance.

Runner-up mentions were given to guards Jalen Green and Jordan Poole, forwards Nikola Jović and Jerami Grant, and center Jakob Poeltl. These choices reflect a focus on the value each player is expected to deliver on the court during the 2026–27 season, relative to that year’s specific salary.

This assessment and the final list are the result of data analysis and assumptions for the 2026–27 season and are expected to serve as a snapshot of how big contracts can burden teams; according to Bleacher Report, these are the key conclusions of the analysis.