TOP BAROMETER: PS Sinks to Its Electoral Floor, but…

By Eduard Zaloshnja

Yesterday I conducted the TOP BAROMETER electronic poll for the Top Story show, by distributing the questionnaire link via SMS to entirely random numbers, from Vermosh to Konispol. The questionnaire was completed by 1,411 adult residents of the country.

The poll found that only 60% of the country’s adult population would vote today if parliamentary elections were held (see graph 5).

But how would those who voted last year inside the country vote today?

Around 42.4% would vote today for the PS, down from 52.2% who voted for it last year. Around 23.9% would vote today for the PD-ASHM, down from 34.3% who voted for it last year. And around 11.6% would vote today for the small parties that ran last year (10 in total), down from 13.5% who voted for them last year (see graph 6).

From all the polls I have conducted since last year’s elections, I find that the PS has now sunk to its electoral floor. It was in a similar situation only after SPAK requested the suspension of Belinda Balluku from her government posts. Even so, today the PS has almost twice the votes of the PD-ASHM, while the small parties are far below it.

Since the poll sample statistically approximates the country’s entire adult population, it can be statistically extrapolated that around 760,000 adult residents would not vote today for any of the existing parties (40% of 1.9 million).

But how did those who would not vote today vote last year?

Around 57.5% did not vote at all last year; almost 20% voted last year for the PD-ASHM; almost 19% voted for the PS; and around 3.7% voted for the small parties (see graph 7).