Trump’s Approval Sinks to New Career Lows Five Weeks Before the Midterms as Projections Warn of a “Blue Wave”

With only five weeks left before the midterm elections, President Donald Trump’s approval rating has sunk to the lowest levels of his political career, while analysts warn that Republicans could face a “blue wave” in November, as USA Today reports.

According to the FiftyPlusOne polling average, only 34.7% of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance, while 62% disapprove — a dramatic drop from the 52% recorded just one month into his second term.

Last week’s polls confirm the trend. Emerson College (published Sept. 24) puts Trump at 39% approval and nearly 58% disapproval, while 56% of likely voters say he has done worse than expected in his second term and only 26% say he has done better. The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll (Sept. 23) also records him at 39% approval, with 53% strongly disapproving — the highest level across both his terms. Economist/YouGov (Sept. 22) has him at 35%, down 5 points in a week, only 2 points above his all-time low. Reuters/Ipsos (Sept. 21) puts him at 32% — the lowest of his political career — while the American Research Group (Sept. 21) records 29%.

FiftyPlusOne analytics chief G. Elliott Morris describes the drop as unprecedented: “Public reaction is much harsher than in the first presidency… the wheels have simply come off completely in the public’s eyes over the last six months.” His forecast is grim for Republicans: Democrats win 25 House seats and 4–5 Senate seats — enough for majorities in both chambers. “It is very, very, very unlikely that Republicans hold the majority… These elections have all the hallmarks of a major blue wave,” he said.

The main driver of the decline is the difficult economy: high fuel prices, the trade war, the enforcement of immigration policy and the war with Iran. Only 17% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, while only 34% approve of the war with Iran, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Republicans counter that the polls do not show the whole picture. Pollster Daron Shaw says Trump’s approval among registered voters moves between the high 30s and low 40s, but admits that “many Republicans are walking around with a heavy vest because of Trump’s low numbers.”

Signs of trouble for Republicans are also showing in the Senate races. In Michigan (Suffolk, Sept. 22), Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 47% to 40%, while nearly half of voters say they will vote “to change the direction Trump is taking the country.” In Texas (Marist, Sept. 23), Democrat James Talarico leads Trump-backed Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 44%. Meanwhile, 54% of independents describe their congressional vote as a vote against Trump, according to the Marist poll.