Why has confidence in the economy risen in September?

By Fatos Çoçoli

According to the Business and Consumer Confidence Survey, published on 1 October 2026 by the Bank of Albania, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (citizens’ assessment of and confidence in their country’s economy) rose by 0.3 points during September 2026, or 7.8 percentage points above the historical average, giving a positive signal about how families and businesses perceive the economic situation and the outlook for the coming months.

Although the monthly increase is modest, the fact that the indicator continues to stand significantly above the historical average is an important element.

Among the main economic confidence indicators, confidence in construction rose by 6.6 per cent in September 2026 and now stands 18 percentage points above the long-term average. The improvement came both from more positive assessments of current construction activity and from order contracts.

The good tourist season has directly influenced economic optimism

One of the main factors that supported confidence during September is the good performance of the tourist season. Tourism is no longer only a seasonal activity limited to the months of July and August. It is extending further into the months before and after the season’s peak, bringing income for hotels, restaurants, transport, trade, travel agencies and a large number of other services.

A good tourist season translates into more turnover for businesses, more employment and income for families. This creates a chain effect in the domestic economy and improves entrepreneurs’ perception of economic activity.

On the other hand, a good tourist season does not bring only income. It also creates a positive psychological effect. Businesses see more clients, more activity and more turnover. Families working in tourism-related sectors have more income.

Tourism has a broader effect than the hospitality sector. The importance of tourism for economic confidence does not lie only in the number of tourists. A tourist who spends in Albania creates demand for a broad chain of activities: food, transport, trade, entertainment, financial services, communication and other activities. For this reason, a good tourist season improves entrepreneurs’ perception even in sectors that are not considered directly part of the tourism industry.

Construction makes a strong contribution to the rise of confidence in our economy

Another important element is the strong increase of optimism in the construction sector.

Construction has considerable weight in economic activity and is linked to many other sectors: the production and trading of construction materials, transport, professional services, financing, employment and real estate.

When this sector’s entrepreneurs become more optimistic about future activity, this can signal expectations for continued investment and demand.

Confidence in construction also has an effect on employment. Construction is a sector with a relatively high employment intensity. The increase of expected activity in this sector means more demand for workers, technicians, engineers, architects and other construction-related professions.

In an economy like ours, where the shortage of labour is becoming a concern for many businesses, the growth of activity in sectors that create jobs is especially important.

The improvement of consumer perception — a positive signal for consumption

The rise in confidence did not come only from businesses. Consumers’ perception also improved during September. This is extremely important, because consumer confidence influences spending decisions.

A family that perceives the economic future more positively is more inclined to consume, to buy durable goods, to invest in housing, or to make other expenditures that it might postpone in a period of uncertainty.

And consumer confidence strengthens domestic demand. The economy does not depend only on investment and exports. Household consumption is one of the main engines of domestic demand.

If the improvement in consumer perception is accompanied by a real increase in income and employment, it will translate into more consumption and, consequently, into more activity for businesses.

This creates a positive cycle: more confidence → more consumption → more turnover for businesses → more investment and employment → more income → more confidence.

Citizens’ and entrepreneurs’ confidence surveys matter, because the economy is driven not only by what has happened, but also by what businesses and families expect to happen.

A business that expects demand to grow invests more. A consumer who is more optimistic consumes more. For these stubborn reasons, the improvement of confidence can be a leading indicator of future positive economic developments.