UK records the slowest population growth since 1998

LONDON, October 1 /ATSH-DPA/ – Population growth in the United Kingdom has slowed to its lowest level since 1998, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period, new data show.

The sharp slowdown is mainly linked to the fall in net migration, which has dropped quickly after reaching record levels in 2023.

In the United Kingdom, more births than deaths continue to be recorded, but the difference between them has narrowed significantly.

The four constituent parts of the United Kingdom have had different developments.

Wales recorded its first population fall in a decade, while Scotland and Northern Ireland had almost no growth. Only England recorded a small increase.

According to data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the total UK population was around 69.5 million in mid-2025.

That represents an increase of 227,665 people compared with the previous 12 months, or just 0.33%.

This is the lowest annual population growth rate since 1998, excluding 2020, when the data were affected by the pandemic.

In previous years growth had been much larger: 1.05% in 2022, 1.34% in 2023 and 0.97% in 2024.

The fall in migration

The large population growth in those years was mainly driven by rising net international migration.

Net migration is the difference between the number of people coming to live in the UK for a long period and the number of people leaving the UK to live abroad.

In the 12 months to mid-2025, net migration is estimated at 222,900 people, far less than 651,700 in the preceding 12 months.

Fewer births

In the 12 months to mid-2025, around 652,400 births were recorded, the lowest number in more than 40 years.

In the same period there were around 647,500 deaths.

That means that, from the difference between births and deaths alone, the population grew by around 4,900 people.

This number is much lower than a year earlier, when the difference between births and deaths was 16,200 people.

However, the situation has improved compared with the 12 months to mid-2023, when deaths outnumbered births.

In that period, the natural change in population was minus 16,300 people.

What is expected in the coming years?

According to projections published earlier this year by the ONS, from 2026 there could be more deaths than births in the UK every year.

The projections also show that population growth may continue to slow and then stop, while the total population may begin to fall in the mid-2050s.

But the ONS stresses that these are projections, not forecasts.

They are based on current and past trends, particularly the fall in net migration and lower birth rates. They do not take into account changes that may occur in the future.

Why is net migration falling?

One reason is the fall in the number of people from outside the European Union coming to the UK for work reasons.

This is linked to immigration policy changes introduced by the previous Conservative government and continued by the current Labour government.

These changes have tightened the rules for people who want to come to the UK to work.

Also, fewer people have come to the UK through official humanitarian resettlement programmes, while the number of people leaving the country has risen.

Differences between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

In the year to June 2025:

• England: the population grew by around 0.39%.
• Scotland: growth was just 0.04%.
• Northern Ireland: growth was just 0.03%.
• Wales: the population fell by 0.09%, the first annual fall since 2015.

In Wales and Scotland, the number of deaths was greater than the number of births.

According to the ONS, this is linked to the fact that the population of these two countries is on average older than that of England and Northern Ireland.

For this reason, there is a slightly higher death rate and fewer births.

The ONS added that the average number of children born in Wales and Scotland is also lower than in the other parts of the UK.

In all four parts of the United Kingdom, net international migration has contributed to population growth.

But in Wales, this growth was not enough to offset the fact that deaths outnumbered births, so Wales’s total population fell.