Estonia changes its military strategy, moves troops close to the Russian border and prepares for “active defence”

Estonia is preparing for a possible Russian provocation or even a direct attack, moving permanent troops closer to its border with Russia and buying weapons systems that can strike targets deep inside the neighbouring country.

The heads of Estonia’s armed forces and intelligence services do not believe Moscow is seeking a full war with NATO, at least within the next two years, but they believe Russia is preparing for a possible future conflict with their country.

What the Baltic country is considering is the possibility of an opportunistic move by the Kremlin, such as a limited invasion that would test NATO’s collective defence clause. Neither Estonia nor NATO currently has a credible deterrent against such a scenario, they argue.

This concern has led Estonia, which has no air force of its own and relies on NATO to protect its airspace, to adopt a new strategy of “active defence”.

“We have to start at the border and win the first battles,” said Colonel Tarmo Kudla, commander of the Estonian First Brigade, the country’s main fighting force.

Under the new strategy, his unit will be permanently moved from Tapa to Jõhvi, only 50 kilometres from the Russian border, where extensive new facilities are being built to house the soldiers.

“Deterrence is not working,” said a senior Estonian military intelligence official.

Estonia’s Ministry of Defence stated, for its part, that “credible deterrence means we must make any attack against us unimaginable. Our goal is clear: to keep the enemy and the destruction of war away from Estonian soil.”

Russian state media consistently portray Estonia as a hostile and “Russophobic” country, seeking to drag Moscow into a direct conflict with NATO. For its part, the Kremlin has even threatened Estonia with a nuclear attack if the country hosts NATO nuclear weapons on its territory.

The Estonian government introduced the term “active defence” into its National Security Doctrine in May. Since then, the country’s small but well-trained armed forces have quietly begun a radical reorganisation.

Thus, from Tapa, Estonia’s main military base, selected units are gradually and permanently moving to more eastern positions, closer to the Russian border. At the same time, in addition to the new base in Jõhvi, a base is being built in Narva itself, which will be able to accommodate up to 1,000 soldiers.