New York Times/Siena poll: Democrats lead Senate races in five Republican states

Less than a month before November’s midterm elections, a new New York Times and Siena University poll, published on October 2, gives Democrats the lead or a tie in five traditionally Republican states — Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas — as USA Today reports.

According to the poll, conducted from September 21 to October 1, in Alaska former congresswoman Mary Peltola leads with 50% against 43% for the Republican incumbent senator Dan Sullivan, while in Texas Democrat James Talarico holds a 51% to 45% advantage over Republican Ken Paxton.

In Ohio, former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown has a three-point lead (49% to 46%) over Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat vacated when JD Vance left to become vice president. In Kansas, where no Democrat has been elected to the Senate in more than 90 years, Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton is tied at 45% to 45% with Republican Senator Roger Marshall, while in Iowa, where Democrats have not won a Senate race in 18 years, state representative Josh Turek is just one point behind Republican House representative Ashley Hinson (47% to 48%).

To take control of the Senate, Democrats need to win at least four seats held by Republicans and hold their current seats — the current Senate consists of 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, including two independents who vote with them. Until now in 2026, Democrats were considered certain only to retake the House of Representatives, but growing dissatisfaction with President Trump’s handling of the economy and the war with Iran has raised their chances for the Senate as well. Control of both chambers of Congress would allow Democrats to block Trump’s agenda in the final two years of his term.

The top issue for voters remains the economy: 21% of likely voters say it is the most important issue in their decision, followed by inflation and the cost of living, the character and competence of the candidate, and immigration — each at 8%, according to the poll. In total, 57% of respondents in these five states view Trump’s work as president negatively.

“There is not just a swing away from the Republican Party compared with 2024, but it appears to be somewhat larger in red America than in blue America, and that is putting states that Trump won easily into play,” Boston College political science professor David Hopkins told Reuters.

Trump has begun a rally tour in red states — Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio and Nebraska — while his MAGA political committee has promised $400 million to support Republicans, and the Senate Leadership Fund is spending $100 million in Texas alone to bolster Paxton.

The poll also shows Democrats competitive in five other states that Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024: Florida, Nebraska, Mississippi, South Carolina and Kentucky.