Analysis – Brussels prepares for a bigger EU

– The European Commission is expected on October 6 to propose significant changes to the way the EU takes decisions, without reopening the treaties, together with an entirely new set of safeguards against democratic backsliding and the weakening of the rule of law in future member states, according to europeanwesternbalkans.com.

For the first time in almost a decade, the Commission may also present indicative timelines for completing accession negotiations with the most advanced candidates, Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine and Moldova, as part of new roadmaps to be presented later in the month.

For Serbia and other candidates that are further behind in the process, Brussels is proposing different forms of “gradual integration.”

October could become enlargement month in Brussels.

After almost a year and a half of delays, Ursula von der Leyen is expected next week to present the Commission’s proposals for reforming the EU ahead of the next enlargement.

The central question is straightforward: how can the EU admit new members without making decision-making more cumbersome or weakening democratic safeguards?

A draft of the Commission’s proposal argues that the EU must change both the way it takes decisions and the composition of its institutions if it wants to remain effective with a much larger number of members.

The next enlargement would also be accompanied by stronger safeguards and a more developed system of gradual integration.

These safeguards could be decisive in securing support for enlargement from the current member states.

According to several sources familiar with the proposal, the current draft envisages financial and institutional safeguards, as well as temporary limits on new members’ ability to use the veto.

New members: temporarily without a veto?

According to the Commission, new member states could be asked, for a limited period after accession, to accept restrictions on their ability to block decisions in areas where unanimity is required.

Such an arrangement could be set out in a declaration accompanying the accession treaty.

According to people familiar with the proposal, the aim would not be to create permanently different rights for new members, but to allow their gradual integration into the EU’s decision-making system.

Financial penalties for weakening the rule of law

A new financial safeguard would enable the Commission, for a limited period, to propose measures including the suspension of EU funds, if there are clear indications that rule-of-law deficiencies in a new member state could endanger the sound administration of the EU budget or its financial interests.

In practice, Brussels wants to make it easier to protect EU funds if a newly admitted country begins to move away from democratic standards after accession.

Suspension of voting rights for violations of EU values

The proposal also envisages giving the EU more scope to suspend a new member state’s voting rights in cases of particularly serious violations of the Union’s fundamental values.

Under the proposed system, the Council could act on a recommendation from the Commission and take such a decision by qualified majority, for a limited period.

The key difference would be the removal of the unanimity requirement — the obstacle that has made similar action under Article 7 of the EU treaties extremely difficult.

New member states would also be required to join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) before entering the EU.

Moving away from unanimity

The Commission will also propose a wider use of qualified majority voting, wherever the existing treaties allow it, reducing the EU’s dependence on unanimity.

This would apply above all in foreign policy, defense and sanctions, but also in EU enlargement.

The most direct route would be to use the EU’s so-called passerelle clauses, which already allow member states to change decision-making procedures in certain areas without formally amending the treaties.

Countries worried about being outvoted would retain safeguards.

An “emergency brake” would allow particularly sensitive issues to be referred to EU leaders, while another mechanism would require efforts to find an acceptable compromise when a considerable group of member states risks being outvoted.

Preparing the institutions for a bigger EU

The proposal also envisages reducing the number of European Commissioners to two-thirds of the number of member states.

The Council would create a rotation system designed to reflect the EU’s demographic and geographic diversity.

The Commission’s proposal also stresses the need to adapt the composition of the European Parliament as the number of member states grows.

Roadmaps to membership for Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine and Moldova

The EU’s internal reform is only one side of the equation.

According to the current calendar, the European Commission is expected on October 28 to present new membership roadmaps as part of the enlargement package.

Brussels wants to give the leading candidates more predictability and a clear, step-by-step path to membership, potentially including indicative timelines for closing all negotiating chapters.

“These roadmaps will identify the reforms and next steps and will show the sequence of steps needed to successfully complete accession negotiations,” the Commission’s draft document says.

The Commission believes this will give candidate countries, member states and EU institutions a clearer framework for planning the next stages of accession, while maintaining the principle that progress toward membership remains merit-based.

Gradual integration for candidates further from membership

At the same time, the Commission wants to use gradual integration to a much greater extent, making clear that this is not intended as an alternative path for Montenegro and Albania.

“For Montenegro and Albania, which are already quite advanced in the accession process, the priority remains the successful completion of accession negotiations,” the draft says.

For the other candidates, however, gradual integration is presented as a more immediate way to draw closer to the EU, accelerating economic convergence, deepening political cooperation and bringing concrete benefits while reforms continue.

The approach would vary by country and sector, rather than following a single model.

Serbia, Ukraine and Moldova, for example, have a particular interest in arrangements that would ease access to the EU single market for industrial products.

Other candidates have different immediate priorities.

The Commission therefore argues that gradual integration must remain flexible enough to reflect different starting points, reform trajectories and policy priorities.

If the plans are confirmed, this would be the first time in almost a decade that the European Commission offers candidate countries indicative timelines for completing negotiations.

The last time it did so was in February 2018, when the Commission set out a list of steps and reforms aimed at putting Serbia and Montenegro in a position to join the EU by 2025.

Member states largely ignored both the Commission’s enlargement strategy and its indicative deadline.

Since then, much has changed.

Serbia has fallen toward the back of the group of negotiating candidates, while the political climate inside the EU has changed dramatically in favor of enlargement.

The Commission now considers that Montenegro and Albania have a realistic prospect of membership by the end of this decade.

The debate among EU leaders at the summits of October 15, and again in December, will give the first indication of how far member states are willing to go — both in reforming the Union itself and in taking decisive steps toward admitting new members. /Ad.Ab./ a.jor.