Brazil – Bolsonaro leads Lula, the race for the presidency will be decided in a runoff

RIO DE JANEIRO, 5 October /ATSH-DPA/ – Brazil’s presidential election will be decided in a second round, on 25 October, between the incumbent left-wing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

According to preliminary results from the electoral authorities, after about 97% of the votes were counted, Flávio Bolsonaro received about 47.4% of the vote, while Lula received about 44.6%.

Neither of them achieved the absolute majority needed to win in the first round.

Around 159 million Brazilians were eligible to vote in the election. Besides the president and vice-president, voters also chose deputies of the lower house, senators and governors.

A total of 12 candidates took part in the presidential race, but 10 of them remained far behind the two main candidates.

After the results were announced, Flávio Bolsonaro said the result showed that Brazil wants change.

He described the vote as a mandate for political change and declared the end of the era of Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT).

Lula, 80, admitted he had expected to win in the first round, but said a new campaign for the runoff now begins.

Political scientist Oliver Stuenkel considers Bolsonaro the favourite for the second round. According to him, the other candidates were mainly conservatives, which means Lula must win over a considerable share of their voters in order to overturn the result.

Given the political orientation of the eliminated candidates and their supporters, Stuenkel considers this scenario difficult.

The history of Brazilian presidential elections also favours Bolsonaro. Since the return of direct presidential elections in 1989, the candidate who came first in the first round has also won the runoff in all seven cases.

However, in the 2022 election, Lula led in the first round against Jair Bolsonaro, but then defeated him in the second round by a narrow margin.

The two candidates’ programmes

Lula, the candidate of the Workers’ Party (PT), seeks to continue the policies he has pursued since 2023, including social programmes, public investment and a greater role for the state in the economy. The former union leader also led Brazil before, from 2003 to 2010.

During his current term, unemployment has fallen, the minimum wage has risen and deforestation in the Amazon has decreased. At the same time, the rising cost of living, high public spending, debt and corruption scandals have weighed on the government.

Flávio Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party (PL), promises a smaller state and a tougher policy against crime. He has also said that, if elected president, he will seek an amnesty for his father, Jair Bolsonaro.

Former president Jair Bolsonaro has been sentenced to more than 27 years in prison for his involvement in an attempted coup and is currently under house arrest.

The election campaign has also been accompanied by debates over corruption, the independence of the Supreme Court and Brazil’s relations with the United States of America.

U.S. President Donald Trump has politically supported Jair Bolsonaro and has criticised the criminal prosecution of the former Brazilian president. During the campaign, Flávio Bolsonaro moved closer to Trump’s political camp and met him at the White House in Washington.

Public security, one of the main issues

Public security has been one of the main topics of the campaign. Criminal groups and drug traffickers, such as Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV), control territories in some parts of Brazil and are involved in drug trafficking and other illegal activities. Violence against women also remains a major problem in the country.

Flávio Bolsonaro has promised tougher measures against crime, including the creation of about 500,000 new prison places, the construction of high-security prisons modelled on those in El Salvador and a stronger fight against criminal organisations.

Lula, by contrast, has focused more on striking the financial structures of organised crime.

The results in parliament and the Bolsonaro family

In Sunday’s elections, besides the president, senators, deputies and governors were also elected. Bolsonaro’s right-wing camp won the largest number of seats in the Senate and will form the largest grouping in that chamber.

Other members of the Bolsonaro family also recorded victories. Michelle Bolsonaro, the former first lady of Brazil, was elected senator in the Federal District of Brasília.

Carlos Bolsonaro, another son of the former president, also won a seat in the Senate, representing the state of Santa Catarina.

The electoral authorities, meanwhile, said they had found no concrete evidence of foreign interference in the elections.

The 25 October runoff will determine whether Lula will secure a fourth presidential term or whether Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, will take over the leadership of Brazil. /