Gemini 4 did not ignite Google’s stock: investors want proof of monetization, not new AI headlines

Investors who expected a strong rise in Alphabet’s stock when Google unveiled its new artificial intelligence model, Gemini 4 Argon, were in all likelihood disappointed by the market’s reaction, as Investor’s Business Daily reports. Google’s stock may stay in a holding phase until the third-quarter results, analysts say, until more is known about capital spending for 2027 and about free cash flow.

Google unveiled Gemini 4 on September 30. The new model is undergoing cyber-security testing under a US government programme, while Google has not made public any timeline for its release to the wider public.

“Gemini is a supporting story, but not a catalyst, given its current contribution to earnings,” Michael Landsberg, chief executive of Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management, told IBD. “The bottom line is this: the market and investors want proof of AI monetization, not more headlines about new models.”

According to Wall Street forecasts, Google’s third-quarter results are expected at the end of October, with earnings per share of around 3.04 dollars, up 6%, and revenue up 24%, to 127.2 billion dollars. Landsberg stresses that Google’s capital spending on AI infrastructure remains the key issue: for the first time in its history, the company reported negative free cash flow in the second quarter, and management has warned it will remain under pressure throughout the construction of the artificial intelligence infrastructure. In 2026 Google’s stock has risen around 8%, after reaching a 52-week high of 408.61 dollars on May 18, but fell by 4% in the quarter that closed in September.