Polymarket Opens Market on Serbia’s Next Prime Minister: Vučić at 56%, Srdanović Rises to 42%

Polymarket, the global prediction platform, has since July 1 opened the market “Who will be Serbia’s next prime minister”, where users trade contracts whose prices reflect the implied probability of each candidate taking office.

According to this morning’s data, Aleksandar Vučić leads at 56 cents, corresponding to an implied probability of around 56 percent. In second place is Ilija Srdanović, first on the Student List, at 42 cents — yesterday his price was only 34%, a significant rise within 24 hours.

Trading volume by 6:30 this morning had reached around $107,200, with the largest share, around $64,900, invested in contracts on Vučić. Ana Brnabić, meanwhile, is in sharp decline and is priced at just 2%. Other candidates included in the market are Vladan Đokić, Gjuro Macut, Dragan Đilas, Ivica Dačić, Milosh Vučević, Stefan Krkobabić and economist Branimir Jovanović.

Caution: these figures are not opinion polls — they are market prices, the result of supply and demand. Users can also buy “No” contracts against a candidate, so the amount invested does not translate into vote percentages. The winner of the market, however, is the candidate who is elected prime minister in parliament.

Prices move continuously with campaign developments and may change significantly before the market closes.

Source: Danas