The U.S. aims to turn the Armenia-Azerbaijan transit deal into an investment opportunity

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is working to turn its breakthrough between Armenia and Azerbaijan into something more concrete: a transport corridor linking Central Asia and the South Caucasus to Western markets, and an investment opportunity for American companies.

Senior regional officials and executives of more than 40 companies gathered in New York on September 23 to discuss next steps for the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), one of the main pillars of Washington’s efforts to turn the Armenia-Azerbaijan opening into growth in regional trade and investment.

At this event, held on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, participants included U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and the Republican senator from Montana, Steve Daines, as well as officials from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and the five Central Asian states.

The challenge now is turning a political deal into steel, asphalt and investment. No construction has started yet, feasibility studies are still underway and companies are not expected to start bidding for the major contracts until the end of 2026 or early 2027.

Washington sees TRIPP as a multimodal corridor through southern Armenia, linking Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave and creating a broader east-west link between the South Caucasus, Central Asia and Western markets.

The proposed Armenian section is only about 43 kilometers long, but it aims to resolve one of the most debated issues emerging from the decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan: how to connect Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan through Armenian territory.

Armenia and Azerbaijan fought two major wars over Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory and which for decades had a predominantly ethnic-Armenian population. Azerbaijan regained full control of the territory in 2023, causing almost its entire ethnic-Armenian population to leave.

Both countries agreed on the text of a peace treaty in March 2025, but have not yet concluded the final agreement. At a White House summit five months later, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a joint declaration, brokered by the U.S., aimed at ending the decades-long conflict and opening transport links in the region. TRIPP emerged from this agreement.

TRIPP aims to enable unimpeded transit between mainland Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan through Armenian territory, while preserving Armenia’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and jurisdiction — a politically significant provision, given the long disputes over control of the route.

The project is planned to be developed by a U.S.-Armenian company, in which the United States is intended to have control, giving Washington a significant role in a strategic region where Russia has traditionally exercised considerable influence.

Under the plan, the Armenian section will eventually include rail and road links, as well as energy and digital infrastructure.

From the peace deal to the trade route

Witkoff credited Pashinyan and Aliyev for recognizing that a peace deal offered a better alternative than the decades-long conflict.

“Unlike many other conflicts we see in the world, here we had all the ingredients for a deal,” Witkoff said, describing both leaders as “extremely pragmatic and mature.”

He also credited President Trump for pushing the process forward, as U.S. officials found that communication between Yerevan and Baku had stalled.

But the focus in New York was on whether the diplomatic opening can now deliver economic benefits.

Witkoff said the economic implications of TRIPP are becoming increasingly clear, as officials and companies examine the project’s potential to play a role in international supply chains.

“Everything now is focused on throughput and speed to market,” he said, referring to assessments that the route could shorten some trade journeys by up to three weeks.

TRIPP could be integrated into the Trans-Caspian Corridor, or Middle Corridor, an east-west network through which goods are transported between China and Central Asia across the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus and onward to Europe. This corridor has drawn great attention as governments and businesses seek alternatives to traditional transit routes through Russia.

Witkoff said he expects the project to generate “major investments,” particularly in Armenia.

Speaking at another event in New York on September 23, Pashinyan said the implementation of TRIPP would “fully unblock” regional connectivity and “open a new era” for Armenia and its economy.

For now, however, the corridor remains mostly a project on paper.

The U.S. State Department says engineering and feasibility studies are examining the proposed railway route, including technical, environmental and social aspects. A separate feasibility study carried out earlier is examining the possibility of deploying energy and digital infrastructure along the transport links.

Officials expect work on the rail feasibility to be completed by the end of 2026 or early 2027, after which companies may bid for contracts. Building the railway would require at least another 18 months, while electricity connections could potentially begin operating in 2027.

U.S. investments

Washington is also building the financial and corporate structures aimed at turning these plans into investable projects.

The U.S. and Armenia are creating a TRIPP development company, a joint venture in which Washington is expected to hold the majority stake and which will oversee infrastructure development and competitive tenders.

A separate Trans-Caspian Enterprises Fund aims to mobilize private capital for connectivity projects across the region.

Andrew D’Anieri, director of the Center for Eurasia at the Atlantic Council, said both initiatives signal deeper U.S. economic engagement.

“Pushing the TRIPP project forward and announcing the Trans-Caspian Enterprises Fund in the presence of senior regional officials and major American companies sends a strong signal that America is serious,” D’Anieri told Radio Free Europe.

“TRIPP will move more slowly, given the scale of the project’s technical difficulty and geopolitical sensitivities,” he said.

A new route through a region of many interests

These sensitivities extend beyond Armenia and Azerbaijan. The South Caucasus links Europe with Central Asia in a region where Russia, China, Iran and Turkey all have significant interests.

Angela Howard, a researcher at the Center for Economic and Financial Power of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said U.S.-backed infrastructure could create new trade links while reducing dependence on routes controlled or influenced by Russia.

“U.S. investment in the Caucasus puts America at the gateway to Central Asia,” she told Radio Free Europe.

She warned, however, that U.S.-backed projects would need safeguards against corruption and foreign influence.

“Strong safeguards and broad oversight will be critical going forward,” Howard said.

Daines said Washington must continue its engagement and argued the region should be seen not only through the prism of past conflicts but also as a potential hub for trade and investment.

For now, the political framework exists, but engineering studies, financing, tenders and construction are still matters awaiting the future. As one senior U.S. official put it, “we’re not there yet.”