Polls: far-left Mélenchon on course for presidential run-off against Le Pen

Far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon could secure enough support for a run-off with far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the second round of next spring’s French presidential elections, according to a poll, as Politico writes.

The Cluster 17 poll mapped two scenarios depending on whether Gabriel Attal or Édouard Philippe, both former prime ministers under President Emmanuel Macron, appear on the ballot.

Against Attal, who would take 13.5% of the vote, Mélenchon of France Unbowed ranks comfortably second with 20%, behind Le Pen’s 31%. If Philippe runs, he and Mélenchon would take 19% of the vote, behind the far-right National Rally candidate.

If Mélenchon and Le Pen face off, it will be the first time since 1958 that France has had no mainstream center-left or center-right candidate. Voters would have to choose between two contenders who, despite their deep differences, are both eager to pull France out of NATO and are critical of the European Union.

Mélenchon is proving particularly popular among young voters, with 47% of those aged 18 to 34 currently planning to support the far-left candidate in the first round, versus 22.2% for Le Pen. The National Rally candidate is winning support among voters near retirement age, taking 43.8% in the 50-64 age group.

The Cluster 17 poll also suggests that Mélenchon has gained more support from those who voted for the Green candidate in the previous 2022 elections than the party’s current candidate, Marine Tondelier.

Meanwhile, candidates from pro-European and moderate parties are struggling to keep up in the crowded political battlefield. Attal and Philippe are fighting a fratricidal battle to take over Macron’s mantle. Besides them, only MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, currently the leading candidate in the center-left primaries organized by the Socialist Party in October, is reaching double digits in Cluster 17’s polls.

Even if he qualifies for the second round, Mélenchon’s lack of popularity beyond his voter base could prevent him from turning his success into a victory in the run-off against Le Pen. While 73% of voters told Cluster 17 they have a negative opinion of him, few would vote for him outside his core supporters.