Preview: Gerrit Cole, the Rotation and Yankees Lineups for the Wild-Card Round Against the Red Sox

All signs point to the New York Yankees hosting the Boston Red Sox in the playoff wild-card round for the second straight year, even though the team could mathematically still win the AL East if it sweeps all four games against Tampa Bay starting next Tuesday. In that scenario, the Yankees could avoid the wild-card round altogether, but it currently looks more likely they will be the AL’s No. 4 seed, while Boston is expected to remain No. 5.

As reported by Bleacher Report, the medical staff has some concerns ahead of the postseason: through a midweek scare, Jazz Chisholm Jr. suffered a strain in his right finger and was placed on the injured list, but he expects to return before the end of the season during the closing home series. Trent Grisham is recovering from a grade 2 hamstring strain and could also return within the regular season, though without a clear timeline. Giancarlo Stanton continues his recovery program after a year of calf issues and is expected to miss time until 2027 if the injuries don’t resolve; Clarke Schmidt is completing his rehab phase after Tommy John surgery and has recorded 11 strikeouts in 26 at-bats across five appearances, and LHP Ryan Weathers is working toward a comeback after a flexor strain, throwing long toss and preparing to throw from the mound soon.

Management is expected to have several important lineup decisions: Paul Goldschmidt is expected to be used more against Boston’s left-handers, but won’t be the choice against Sonny Gray, against whom he has historic struggles. Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger appear set to hold the second and third spots in the order, with Luis Garcia Jr. and Ben Rice playing key roles in the middle of the lineup. Jazz Chisholm Jr., if healthy, restores infield flexibility, and there will be debate around the roles of Ryan McMahon and Amed Rosario, who could be deployed according to specific matchups.

As for the rotation, staff projections are: Game 1 with RHP Cam Schlittler, Game 2 with LHP Max Fried (if he can build up to around 100 pitches) and, should a Game 3 be needed, LHP Carlos Rodón is expected to take the mound. Gerrit Cole, however, is a subject of discussion: he is one of the highest-paid pitchers and hasn’t missed a turn since his season debut, but he has struggled lately — allowing seven home runs in his last two starts and posting a 6.48 ERA and 7.30 FIP for September. His numbers against Boston show difficulty: in 2021–26 regular seasons he has 75.0 IP with a 6.36 ERA, in the postseason against Boston 8.0 IP with a 7.88 ERA, while against non-Boston teams in 2021–26 regular seasons he has 726.1 IP with a 2.90 ERA and in the postseason against non-Boston 125.1 IP with a 2.44 ERA. Ideally, the team hopes to avoid a third game that forces the decision on Cole, saving him for a potential ALDS.

These projections and player-condition summaries are based on reporting and analysis published by Bleacher Report, and lineup and rotation decisions are expected to be determined by the players’ latest condition and tactical needs during the Red Sox matchup.